British prime minister Theresa May May lose control of parliament in an election on June 8th, according to YouGov, a pollster. This could trigger political unrest in the UK as brexit talks begin.
Opinion polls suggest that Theresa may will lose the election, and that the brexit talks will be a rocky one
The conservative party has slipped
YouGov model shows, Teresa mei's conservative party may lose 20 seats, it will make the house of Commons in Britain currently has 17 majority, was forced to seek with the other party to form a unity. Most, although some other poll model shows that the tories can still win the advantage of 142 parliamentary seats, and kai degrees, according to the survey even conservative lead is also widened.
Britain will begin a complex brexit negotiations soon after the election. If YouGov's model is accurate, Theresa may will lack the 326 seats needed to form a new government.
Another independent, regular survey by YouGov for The Times reveals that Mrs May's conservative party leads the Labour party by just three points. Labour has been eating into the tories' lead since the campaign began.
The YouGov poll also showed that the conservative party's approval rating was 42%, down a percentage point from last week, while Labour's support was up by three percentage points.
Theresa may is still at risk
The survey has again weakened the pound. Previously, the pound was down nearly 1 per cent against the us dollar, according to YouGov, and a subsequent cae survey showed a rise in the currency. The kay survey showed that Theresa may's lead has widened to 10 per cent.
Teresa may call for an early general election, in order to enhance her in the UK to take off the influence of negotiation, strive for more time to deal with the impact of the European, and strengthen her control of the tories. However, if she can't more than Mr Cameron's campaign in 2015 as a result, won 12 seats in order to gain a majority, she bet for the election will fail, the authority of her will be weakened. She tried to send a message to voters that Britain would succeed in leaving the European Union.
If Teresa may not win a majority, she will be forced to agreed with another party to continue in the form of a coalition or minority government to manage England.
This will raise questions about the future of brexit, Britain's $2.5 trillion economy, and Britain's policies on a range of issues. These include corporate taxes, government spending and borrowing.
Theresa may's announcement on April 18th that Britain was holding an early election shocked politicians and financial markets. Opinion polls show that she could follow prime minister Margaret thatcher in 1983, win 144 seats in the majority, even break the former prime minister Tony Blair Labour won 179 seats in the majority in 1997.
Theresa may's lead has narrowed
But opinion polls suggest that Theresa may's approval ratings have slipped in the past month. Her approval ratings fell sharply after she made plans on May 18th to let some seniors pay more for medical care. The proposal was dubbed the "dementia tax" by opponents.
Since the suicide attacks on May 22, Manchester, England were conducted eight times poll, showed that Teresa may relative to the Labour party's lead has narrowed, some people suggested that she might not be able to reverse a month ago a sharp drop in support of predicted results.
On May 31, when a reporter asked Teresa may, she will because lose seats has resigned, she deftly sidestepped the question, said the only important voting is the election of June 8.
Recent polls show that Theresa may's lead has narrowed to five to 14 percent. YouGov points out that its electoral model is based on voting intentions, which suggest that Mrs May has a lead of just three percentage points.
British poll keds, chairman of the committee (John Curtice) said that once the conservative lead fell below 7%, the UK is likely a hung parliament. Keds said: "young voters party's approval rating has been rising, and is rising sharply, but the key problem is that these young people will come out and vote."
YouGov USES a known as the "multiple regression and after stratification" technology, using a series of factors, including the past elections and voters, population statistics, and has set up a model, which can estimate the division of each district vote.
Mock election results
Michael Ashcroft, a former Tory donor, has funded the polls. He used the same model as the YouGov, but it has a very different estimates on election: Teresa mei won 396 seats, and leaders of the Labour party won 180 seats in corbin.
Other forecasts suggest that Theresa may will win. According to the electoral computing website which predicts the results of the poll and electoral geography, Theresa may will win 371 seats and Labour will win 205 seats.
The gaming market believes that Theresa may is more than 80 per cent more likely to win a full victory, even though it misjudged the outcome of the June 23 brexit vote.
YouGov admits that its forecasts are controversial and allow a large margin of error. In addition, each constituency sample is small.
Jim Messina, a conservative pollster and data adviser, points out that YouGov's Numbers are foolish. He spent a day laughing at it.
YouGov allows for a big difference in the election. The conservatives, whose executives say the tories will have a maximum of 345 seats, have 15 more seats than they are now, with a minimum of 274 seats.